4' 33"

Returning to the Cold War; dividing the spoils

Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Troops wearing uniforms without identifying insignia took control of key instillations in Crimea in the east of Ukraine yesterday; they are very probably Russian. And as President Putin is rattling sabers just across the boarder in an ostensibly 'long-planned military exercise', assurances from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russia will not interfere stretch credulity.

I'm old enough to remember the Russian invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, not forgetting its military intervention in Georgia. Putin is a product of the KGB and the Cold War and his thinking seems stuck there; he sees perestroika and glasnost as terrible mistakes, and wants a return to the former glories of the USSR. The only difference being that today it's not about ideology but power, national pride  and international influence.

He has little to lose in behaving 'badly' (i.e., not paying nice with the West); the US and Europe on the other hand do. Europe relies heavily on Russian natural gas for its energy needs. The US wants, at a minimum, Putin's acquiescence in dealing with Syria, Iran and North Korea where Russia's veto on the UN Security Council gives it considerable leverage. Russian isn't about to give up it's naval base in Sevastopol by letting a Westward looking government control  Ukraine's destiny.

Since historically half of the country is mostly ethnically and Russian religiously Russian Orthodox, it seems inconceivable that the Ukraine will remain a single entity; a 'two state' solution, seems inevitable. Yugoslavia, a manufactured amalgam of peoples, splintered in the 1990s. The Ukraine will probably follow the same path. And the sooner everyone acknowledges that the less traumatic the country's future will be.

 

Gun ownerhip unrelated to gun homicides

In an idle moment recently, I regressed homicide rates against rates of gun ownership and the World Bank's Gini index for 62 countries. Gun ownership was not statistically significant (p = 0.58) while the Gini index was (p < 0.001) It appears, oddly, that the NRA is right when it says that guns aren't the underlying cause of gun-involved homicides: income inequality is.

The evolution of the Syrian opposition

A year ago, I thought that the Syrian uprising should be encouraged, though not with direct US military intervention: now I'm less sure. Today one faction, reputedly with links to Al Qaeda shot a high ranking official in the Free Syrian Army. This is exactly the kind of thing those who were reluctant to provide the opposition with armaments were worried about.

Hope and despair

Strange times, oscillating between hope and despair. On the one hand: Syria; Iran; Russia; Iraq; Afghanistan, South Sudan, 45 million people in poverty in the worlds richest country. George Stephanopoulos, once a member of Clinton's cabinet selling out (one must assume for the money) to host one of the most vapid morning talk shows. And Fox 'News'. Kafka would be at home in this logic-defying world. Drought in Califronia, flooding in Sussex, freak winter ice storms and snow in Atlanta. Half a million people temporarily without electricity in the worlds most technologically advanced country. The Obama administration appointing big donors as ambassadors to Norway, Argentina and Iceland. And when things seem at their nadir...

Congress just raised the debt ceiling, passed the Farm Bill (ugh!) and a budget, all without fuss. Marco Rubio sounding sensible on opportunity and education in the PBS New Hour.  I have (fairly) successfully modelled the ICBSC data, my playing is improving, I have a robust system for developing film, the air is clean and fresh. Spaghetti, tuna in marinara sauce and half a bottle of a nice Paso Robles, shared with Jon and Stephen.    

We do live interesting times - and I am often confused. But on balance, I take issue with Slartibarfast; life isn't completely wasted on the living.