Sunday, December 20, 2015

Another year

Angus Deaton, Nobel Laureate, found that death rates from self-inflicted activities (drinking, substance abuse and suicide) are rising among whites in their fifth decade. An anthropologist colleague noted that this groups more than any other part of American society has "lost the narrative of its lives". Living standards have declined relative to that of their parents and their past. Jobs and predictability have been lost. The establishment, captured by big money donors,  seems out of touch. And, now unsurprisingly, they are leaning towards simple, feel-good populist messages such as those of Trump, Carson and Cruz. The worse things get, the more we'd like Trump, Santa, or Jesus to make everything better with a wave of their magic wands. But none of the populists have any defensible suggestions to back up the bluster.

Fareed Zakaria pointed out that defections from the Assad regime have been surprisingly few. Perhaps that's because many non-Muslims think that as terrible as Assad is, a secular regime is better than an Islamic State In Syria, that would likely replace him in a disorderly transition of power.

With recent tensions in the skies over Syria, Turkey and Russia are now at odds, Russia and the US are seemingly cooperating, over targeting and restricting ISIS' financing; but Crimea and the Donbass region are forgotten and Ukraine is, according to the Economist, struggling -- and failing -- to stamp out corruption.

The UN predicts that at current growth rates, Africa will be the most populous continent by 2100. Yet corrupt leaders and poor governance will stifle economic development, deprive generations of children of an eduction and prospects for a better life, and stifle economic growth.

People seemed worried and upset that the San Bernadino shooting were ISIL inspired; yet had they been, as was initially thought, simply an act of workplace rage, this would have made prevention far less likely. While law enforcement failed to detect and prevent this tragedy, their likelihood of preventing workplace violence is far far lower.

The bluster of the right wing of American politics is an indication not of strength, but of fear and insecurity, the instincts of many bullies to make up for their shortcomings and their lack of self-assurance through bravado, coercion and violence. A lack of deep, cohesive, historical roots and traditions exacerbates this; perhaps no one in America really knows deep down, at an almost instinctual level, what it means to be American, the way the French or the Brits do?

Aside from Bernie Sanders, no one is talking about campaign finance reform. And Bernie, and Hilary to a lesser extent, have been almost marginalized by the continuing obsession in covering each and every outrageous Trump utterance (and most of them are).