The first shot

The first shot fired in a revolution by those seeking to change the existing regime likely changes the course of history. In revolutions that are achieved by peaceful protest and the force of popular opinion (such as the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia or recent events in Egypt) those leading the movement are committed but not violent. When peaceful protest is insufficient (as for example in Lybia) and protest turns to the taking up of arms, those leading the uprising are likely to be those most comfortable with the use of violence and lethal force. They may often be fanatical. If the revolution succeeds, those in charge after an armed insurrection are likely to be quite different in character from those who might have been in power had violence not been necessary. One foreign policy implication is that if one wants a moderate government be the outcome of a popular uprising, pressure must be brought to bear before the struggle turns violent.