Saturday, December 21, 2013

An anachronistic obsession

Every day on every new station, from local to national, we hear what the Dow Jones Industrial Average is doing; and it's an increasingly pointless anachronism. 

Once, the Dow was a barometer of the economy - by which is generally meant the US domestic economy. A rising Dow meant firms were doing better, they were investing, and creating jobs.  And when people were flush they were spending and US firms benefited.

But that time has gone; there is no longer a strong correlation between the profits of the 30 Dow companies and the US domestic economy. Over half the Dow 30 earn derive most of their revenues overseas. And those that manufacture do so mostly outside the US. So sales and  profits (and share prices) can rise when domestic spending falls as long as they are rising globally, or while costs are being trimmed by off-shoring.

While not as telegenic (nor as frequently updated, a key factor for the 24x7 media), employment statistics and median wage rates are a better indicator of domestic economic prosperity.               

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