Biden's struggle

Whether or not Stephen Colbert's decision to focus on Joe Biden's son's death was a calculated decision to make Biden appear likeable we'll probably never know. Yet what followed was perhaps the most insightful political interview in years.

As distressing as it was to watch, you felt you were privileged to be party to a rare sharing of private sentiment, Biden's grief and vulnerability, something that in my experience is a critical component to building trust. Arguably, that did more for his possible candidacy than tens of millions of dollars-worth of campaign advertising.

If he does decide to run, and my money is that he will for reasons I'll return to later, Hilary's race will be all but run. As experienced and as competent as she may be (Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal noted that she has been and the pinnacle of American politics for a quarter of a century), she comes across as entitled, privileged, patronising, and out of touch. Her support depends largely on the assumption of her inevitability; once that goes all bets are off. Those of her supporter who were there only because there was no other option are now seeing two; in Bernie Sanders and (perhaps) in Joe Biden. The only thing keeping them in the Hilary camp is the notion that Sanders is too left-leaning to be electable in the presidential race. But that restraint goes away if Biden declares; Hilary supporters my trample one another in a rush for the exit and the campaign will implode much faster, I think, than anyone imagines.    

Aside from struggling with his most recent loss, Biden may be held back knowing that his entry will likely severely wound Hilary's campaign and divide Democratic voters (and donors). Whether he feels any loyalty to Hilary is unclear, but given his apparent decency as a human being, it's quite possible that he may feel reluctant to torpedo Hilary. But my guess is that ultimately as her campaign numbers continue to slide while Bernie Sander's rises, he will feel a sense of duty compelling him to step in as a more electable establishment candidate. We'll know one way or another by mid-November 1, when the first states' filing deadlines fall due for campaigns to register their candidate.