Sunday, November 8, 2015

ISIL vs Al Quaeda

One key difference between ISIL and Al-Qaeda noted by Michael Haydn, ex-Director of the CIA on GPS today, is that Al-Qaeda is a top-down, hierarchical organization that  tightly controls its operations. ISIL, by contrast, is bottom-up and somewhat populists, relying on inspiration to motivate, rather than fiat and loyalty to compel, its members to act. ISIL is a franchise, a loose affiliation of allied interest groups.

That makes it harder eradicate because taking out its senior leadership has little effect. But it also gives rise to a different targeting strategy; without a strong command and control structure, decision making and motivation needs to be more proximate. "Think Global, Act Local" (with a nod to Yves Doz). Strategy follows structure.

"Distant" enemies like the US are less likely to be targeted when they are not directly involved, while directly involved participants are more likely to generate local ire and in so doing become targets.

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