The Frankenstein Monster

The GOP is panicking. Mitt Romney was wheeled out lasts week to assail Trump, (a man whose money and endorsement he was only too happy to have 4 years ago). The irony is that they (or at least the establishment wing of the GOP) have been steadily sowing the seeds of their own destruction for at least the last 8 years. After stoking racist sentiment and mean spirited, xenophobic nationalism, Trump realized that by using the very memes the GOP had crated and pushing  them past when most people thought were acceptable limits, he could outflank them on the right - which he has done very deftly. While much of his rhetoric is utterly deplorable, one must acknowledge the sophistication of his strategy.

So what happens next? The pundits seem to favour a Trump nomination, though whether the establishment can put the genie they conjured up back in the bottle is up for debate. No one really know where Trump stands on the issues since as a businessman he donated to very politician he thought  me might need to further his business empire. He's been all over the map and the primary season is simple an stage for his reality publicity show. Strangely he often sounds a bit like Sarah Palin; but she wasn't acting. He could once he gets the nomination simply say "Look, this was all an act to get round the establishment gate-keepers, I'm actually a reasonable centrist".

If as now seems likely, Hilary wins for the Dems, she would then have a fight on her hands. They've been BFFs so she can't disown him; that means she's fighting on the high ground which, in the new Trumpian alternate universe, is a disadvantage. Trump can shift positions and attack her from any angle and she can't respond in kind (one only has to look at Rubio's futile attempt to see how well that will work). Does Trump need a centrist running mate?  Probably not, but I suspect Christie is angling for that job, and Trump might seem him as simpatico.      

Another possibility is that the GOP manages to put the genie back in the bottle. The most likely nominee would probably be Ted Cruz. Then the race looks fairly "traditional" two establishment nominees (though its interesting that one is now thinking of Rubio and Cruz as establishment when 6 years ago they were the Tea Party home-wreckers). we will then have the traditional mundane mud-slinging and all that will probably matter is party allegiance and turnout. Hilary, with a better ground game, will probably win.   

Who she picks as her running mate ill matter. Assuming Bernie either isn't offered the job or turns it down, a good choice would be Liz Warren, who would bring Bernie supporters and hopefully keep Hilary from backsliding on the things she said after Bernie entered the race. Should she pick another establishment Democrat, she may well lose to Trump and might lose to Cruz and Rubio. It's going to be an interesting 9 months.