The Big Day Finally Arrives

Today Britons vote in potentially the most consequential and potentially irrevocable collective decision of a generation.

I have followed the reporting by the BBC, watched the final debate, and listened to advocates and experts. And I while I am in favour of remaining part of the EU, the two campaigns and all the discussion have been so superficial and insubstantial as to leave me little more informed than when the discussions began.

The final debate on Tuesday night was long on sound-bites and short on engagement with the points the other side made. How anyone can make a reasoned decision given the paucity of information is a mystery.
What I think I know is this: leaving would likely lead to a reduction in exports to Europe as the EU punished a defector, and fewer imports in retaliation. As a result there would be reduction in GDP and unemployment might rise. In the longer run, whether the UK could compensate for this with an pivot to the Commonwealth and other countries outside Europe is hard to say. Economic migration would be reduced though the economic impact might be negative or possibly a wash. EU constraints (aka red-tape) on small business would become less burdensome, which would amongst other things give business more labour market flexibility which would degrade working conditions and depress wages.

Whether greater "local autonomy" makes much more than a feel-good difference is unclear. Since Britain is a net contributor to the EU budget, there would be a financial saving for UK taxpayers. The City would could lose its place as the financial centre of Europe, and the finance sector would shrink. But on the other hand that might reduce the upward pressure on London house prices. If Britain were to leave, Scotland much secede from the UK in order to stay in the EU. The UK's "out-sized influence" might be reduced as it is no longer an "influencer" of affairs in Brussels, but it is still the worlds 5th largest economy, still has (for the moment) a seat on the UN Security Council, and still has a variety of institutions that play an historically influential role in world affairs. But as Britain's role in shaping European issues declines, to the extent that Europe becomes more factious and burdened with internal problems, countries outside the UK might find it easier to deal with and bilateral WTO based trade, not to mention broader relations, might benefit. And finally Europe itself; were Britain to leave, other countries might be inclined to follow, and the entire European project might well be up for a major revision and re-negotiation. Ironically would be exactly what the UK had wanted but was unable to achieve in its recent attempt at renegotiations; but then, outside of Europe, it would no longer be able either to influence that debate or benefit from any new deal.

Ultimately it seems that in the swirl of speculation, claims and counter claims, one must simply find a narrative that is consistent with ones priors and emotional response to the issue and call that a reason to vote one way or the other.