Brexit or not to Brexit

A court ruling in the UK yesterday may pave the way for a Brexit win-win. The court's decision, which the Government is appealing, is that Article 50 cannot be triggered without a vote in Parliament. (The Government will be claiming that in voting for a referendum, Parliament has already delegated its authority to the people and the Government is simply implementing their choice).

But if the ruling stands, those who want a do-over will have their chance, and it seems likely that MPs will vote not to leave (though this may have to be preceded by a general election in which this is the central issue).

If Parliament chooses not to leave, the threat of Brexit will have triggered the first serious re-examination of the EU's purpose and direction in decades (indeed it could be argued, the first since it founding). Given the anti-establishment, anti-centralized-power mood in many other European countries, including France, a founding member or the club, that process may give rise to the kind of Europe that Brexiteers want. And they will have achieved this without having to negotiate access to European markets from the outside.