Trump's Middle East Strategy

Donald Trump's middle east strategy seems to have two strands; real-politik and the building of a Sunni Arab coalition.  First, in his words, Trump will not be constrained by "rigid ideology". In other words, US foreign policy will be abandoning a commitment to the promotion of democracy and human rights in favor of real-politik. Trump has already signalled his lack of concern for civil rights abuses by authoritarial and illiberal regimes in Egypt (not to mention Indonesia and Russia, whose leaders he has praised).  In continuing to supply armaments to the Saudi's but without the moral concerns, for example, concerning the use of banned cluster munitions in Yemen, he is pursuing a transactional approach, consistent with a real-politik doctrine. He hopes to make gains in security and stability through the exercise and projection of power, both directly and by supporting authoritarian leaders and illiberal regimes, eve if that means ditching the "rigid ideology" of concerns over human rights and a commitment to democracy.

The second plank is bringing to together the Sunni Arab states in a security partnership to constrain Iran, the dominant Shia power in the region. However, creating and supporting a Sunni regional coalition risks undoing the improvement in relations with Iran which could lead to the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and emboldening Sunni resistance in Iraq which will complicate the US-Iraqi relationship.

Leaving aside the question of human rights and concerns about democracy, there are reasons to worry that any short term gains in regional stability and security will be outweighed in the medium and long term. If Iran decides that it is no longer on a path to re-integration in trade and diplomacy, it may chose to abandon the nuclear deal signed with the US, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany and The EU in 2015. That would put it back on track to a nuclear weapon in about two years, completely reordering the balance of power in the region. The focus would then turn to the regions two nuclear powers, Iran and Israel.

In the longer term, the abandoning of American ideals will not play well in the region, at least in the 'Arab street'. The reason America was so reviled in Iran was because it was propping up an authoritarian regime; the revolution that followed installed an virulently anti-American theocratic regime which, despite the efforts of pragmatic Iranian reformers, remains so to this day. The failure of the Arab Spring to deliver meaningful democratic reform in Egypt has left much of the population angry not only at Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's autocratic regime but, to the extent that he is propped up by the US, at America too. The same disconnect between the rulers and the street applies to Saudi Arabia, and to some degree in Jordan. As Iran shows, those feelings of antipathy and resentment for past failures last for generations.  Trump's policy may deliver gains while he is in office, but will make things considerably harder for his successors.