The (Short) Road Ahead

As I noted earlier, Trump's withdrawal of the US from the Paris Accord is largely symbolic, designed to placate his base to distract them from that fact that nothing else is getting done. I also suggested it will have little impact on carbon emissions in the short term. While much of the left is up in arms, there are other reasons for less apocalyptic speculation.

China and India are committed to the Accord, in part because they are trying to get to grips with terrible, choking pollution caused in part by their At which point we may get back on track.coal fired power stations. China has also established a world-leading solar panel industry, and is unlikely to adopt domestic policies that would undermine it; that suggests an ongoing commitment to the regulatory scheme that led to its rise. China will also want to encourage other countries to move forward with green energy policies in order to guarantee a market for its solar industry.

Three US states, California, Washington and New York, which together make up about 25% of the entire US economy, have said that they will implement policies to promote renewable energy. That will have a profound impact on any industry involved in fossil fuels or carbon emission more generally.  It will keep the auto makers on course to develop electric vehicles, and it will spur those extractive industries that are low carbon (gas and oil) over coal. It will also create lots of new well paid jobs.        

Even where market forces are weaker, large companies like Exxon and Shell that are global in scope will be responsive to international pressure as well as to the US domestic environment, and the rest of the world is heading green-ward while the US, at least temporarily, is moving the other direction. Time matters here; companies don't turn on a dime, and strategic plans are developed for the long term. Companies may be hesitant to make major course changes if the apparent chaos in the White House causes the GOP to lose the House or the Senate in 2018, or the Presidency itself in 2020. At which point we may get back on track.