Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Containing Kim Jong Un

North Korea's imminent acquisition of an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a nuclear warhead is a serious threat to the current geopolitical system. However, asking China and  Russia to help is pointless.

First, both benefit from having North Korea behaving badly since it gives them a big bargaining tool over the US. Once the North Korean threat goes away, so does their leverage. So their best course is to make small gestures ostensively aimed at slowing North Korea's nuclear ambitions while at the same time extracting large concessions from the US.

Second, neither China nor Russia are threatened by North Korea so they have no intrinsic desire to curb Kim Jong-Un's military ambitions.

Third, China fears that exerting too much pressure may cause the North Korean regime to collapse which would have two possible outcomes, neither to its liking. The first would be a flood of refugees crossing into China. The second is a unified Korea, less sympathetic to China,  larger and ultimately more powerful than the the South was on its own, and with a significant US military presence.

So the problem that has bedevilled four US presidents remains as intractable as it ever was.

The only suggestion I've heard recently that might change this came from Charles Krauthammer, who suggested providing nuclear weapons to Japan and South Korea. Japan's recent move to amend its constitution signals a shift in its thinking regarding regarding the use of military force and may make it open to the idea. South Korea's new president seems less hawkish than his predecessor so the plan might not go over well there (the THUD system deployment has already caused a bit of a stir).

But this would certainly change the regional balance of power and not in a way that China would like so the such a threat might get China to do more to constrain Kim. But it does so with enormous risks of unintended consequences.    

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