Friday, January 5, 2018

Predictions for 2018

  1. The Democrats will make gains in the House in the mid-terms but will not win a majority. They will not pick up any more seats in the Senate.
  2. The US will tacitly and reluctantly accept North Korea as a nuclear power.
  3. Muller will conclude his investigation without finding any concrete evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government and its proxies.
  4. Social Security, Medicade and Midicare reform will be put in hold until after the mid-terms
  5. DACA will expire without a resolution; ICE will begin deportation.
  6. the GOP will pass an infrastructure bill that relies on private financing, with risk backstopped by the Government; it will receive no Democratic support. 
  7. China will continue to gain influence and assert it's role in international affairs. 
  8. Trump will not recertify the Iran Nuclear deal but all other parties will continue to abide by its terms, and the deal will de-facto remain in place. 
  9. Brexit talks will lead to the development of a transitional period to allow the UK more time to disentangle itself from the EU.
  10. South and North Korea will reconcile some of their differences and trade and labour flows will resume.     
  11. No progress will be made in negotiations between Israel and Palestine. 
  12. The rule of law in Afghanistan will continue to deteriorate.
  13. US-Pakistan relations will reach a nadir in the summer but begin to improve towards the end of the year . 
  14. Putin will win re-election.

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