"Tac" everything

As an outsider, Americans seem to have a much stronger admiration / hero worship for members of the armed forces that the Brits (with the possible exception of WWII fighter pilots).

That translates into a marketing of things military; 'tac' lights or 'tac' glasses, for example ('tac' being short for tactical which is itself short-hand, as I understand it for "used by the military or the more heavily armed branches of law enforcement". Try Googling "tactical" and see what comes up. 

That in turn reinforces the fascination and demand for all sorts of military and military-style products; at the intersection of this and a fascination the projection of with lethal force, America has created a demand for the same weapons the military uses like the AR-15 (army) or the Glock hand guns (police departments). It seems that for many, probably NRA members mostly, their sense of identity is built in part on looking like the military, and that is behind their visceral opposition to any ban on semi-automatic assault rifles.  America, or at least parts of it, not only has a gun problem - it has a gun culture problem. 

Russian Collusion? Probably Not

Trump's repeated assertions that his campaign didn't collude with the Russians is probably what he truly believes. And it may indeed be the case that although he would have liked to have had their help, the campaign didn't wittingly engaged in any acts that would be construed as collusion with a foreign power. But even if that's the case, its still no reason for America and indeed the rest of the world not to be gravely concerned.

Trump's antipathy to the investigation and his refusal to take action to protect the integrity of America's electoral process can't easily be explained as a thin-skinned defensive reaction to allegations that he didn't win the election "fair and square".  If, as he asserts, he is completely innocent, then he shoudl welcome the investigation and act to secure American democracy.

That he has not suggests something else is going on and the Manafort investigation points to what that might be. If Trump's businesses were engaged in similarly shady financial dealings with Russian entities, he may be terrified that Meuller's probe might uncover things that would land him in jail, hence his disdain (and fear) of Meuller's investigation.

And it is the threat that Russia might release that information that is behind his refusal to impose the sanctions Congress voted for overwhelmingly, his refusal to act to strengthen the security and integrity of the electoral system, and his refusal to condemn Putin and the Russian government. If that's the case, it's the threat of blackmail everyone should be concerned about.             

Manafort's Gamble

Despite the guilty please of his long-time business partner, Rick Gates, Paul Manafort is refusing to take a plea deal. Given the documentary evidence Mueller has reportedly gathered and now with the likely corroborating testimony of Gates, it seems all but certain that, were the case to go to court, Manafort would be convicted. So what explains his refusal to accept a plea that would result in a lighter sentence?

The most likely explanation is that given his almost certain conviction, his best bet is a pardon from the President. Since Trump values personal loyalty above all, he has to demonstrate his loyalty to stand any chance of a pardon. Refusing to cooperate with Mueller won't affect his conviction, only his sentence, but sends a strong signal to Trump that he remains loyal to the end; an end that he hopes will be more sweet than bitter.

Trey Gaudy, très bêtes

It turns out when you boil it down, that Trey Gaudy's bone of contention with the FBI is really about font size. The Nunes memo, which he was trying to defend on Face the Nation this morning, alleges that the FISA warrant was granted solely on the back of the uncorroborated "opposition research" Steele dossier. This claim is almost certainly false because 1) this was a FISA warrant "renewal", not the first granting and the FISA process requires the judges, plural, hearing the application demand that prior warrants have produced material intelligence, 2) the filing contained a great deal of other supporting documentation, so the Steele dossier was by no means the only evidence presented, nor indeed was it likely to have been pivotal, and 3) the fact that the Steele dossier was opposition research was caveat-ed in the filing as a footnote. So it would seem that it is the size of the font of that foot note that is the central claim of malfeasance in the Nunes memo.

The Nunes Memo

The much heralded and controversial memo landed today with a dull thud. Rather than the shocking revelation the alt-right was shouting about, it was the usual mishmash of inaccuracies and conspiracy theories we've come to expect from the The Fox wing of the Republican Party. Most people will be left feeling a little (if not very) annoyed that so many conventions and norms of decent behaviour were trampled on, not to mention the damage it does to Congress' ability to work cooperatively with government agencies, for so little of substance. To the informed follower of current affairs this was just another attempt to muddy the waters and distract attention from the investigation into Russian meddling in the last election.

But in fact it's probably been more useful that many of the pundits have been suggesting. While it was so anti-climactic that most people are happy to shrug and move on, it has done something I think quite important; it has provided support and cover for the Fox wing to continue supporting their hapless president. And should the Mueller investigation actually uncover grounds for impeachment, that's a very useful from of insurance.