Manafort's Gamble

Despite the guilty please of his long-time business partner, Rick Gates, Paul Manafort is refusing to take a plea deal. Given the documentary evidence Mueller has reportedly gathered and now with the likely corroborating testimony of Gates, it seems all but certain that, were the case to go to court, Manafort would be convicted. So what explains his refusal to accept a plea that would result in a lighter sentence?

The most likely explanation is that given his almost certain conviction, his best bet is a pardon from the President. Since Trump values personal loyalty above all, he has to demonstrate his loyalty to stand any chance of a pardon. Refusing to cooperate with Mueller won't affect his conviction, only his sentence, but sends a strong signal to Trump that he remains loyal to the end; an end that he hopes will be more sweet than bitter.