Tuesday, June 12, 2018

What does China Want?

Much under-reported amidst all the media ballyhoo surrounding the Kim-Trump summit has been the question: "what does china want"? China matters because sanctions are effector only if China wants then to be. And if sanctions are what bought Kim to the summit, then China holds the cards.

China clearly doesn't want regime change in North Korea because that would likely lead to Korean unification and a non-communist regime less sympathetic to it than the DPRK. It would also provide a large potential base of operations for the projection of US military force in the Asia Pacific region.

On the other hand, China would like to see a rapprochement between the two Koreas and a formal end to the war. That would reduce the justification for the US to keep a military presents in the South. If the South were to decide that it was safer building a relationship with China than with the US, it might close its US military bases which would strengthen China's position in the region.  So China can be expected to keep up sufficient pressure on the North to force an end to the war and the expulsion of US military bases from the South, but without causing sufficient economic hardship that regime change or collapse becomes more likely.

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