Sunday, June 16, 2019

Boris' horns

Boris Johnson, if as seems likely, becomes the Tory's next leader and Britain's next prime minister, will be walking on the horns of a dilemma. To aid Trump in whatever he wants in the hopes of getting post-Brexit trade deal, or risk upsetting the Orange Narcissist and crash our of Brexit with nothing else in place.

He has no friends in Europe to help him, having alienated them all with his all or nothing hard Brexit stance. And if Trump decides to take on Iran, he will likely dangle a trade deal to get Boris on board.

The Brits should be very wary of any promises Trump makes on Trade. Until it's passed by the Congress it Trump's assurances are nothing but vacuous showboating. Even if Congress does pass legislation, Trump has shown that he can still ignore legislation until forced to comply in court, a length (and costly for UK exporters) eventuality.

Brexit can't be delayed until there is a new occupant in the White House, even if that were 2021. So Boris is going to have to make some tough choices; become Trump's puppy dog and keep his finger's crossed, crash our of the EU with no US trade deal in place, or, perish the thought, embrace a soft Brexit.               

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