Fear and self-loathing

Republicans are in a bind. In 2015 when Trump first appeared on the political scene, most - as noted by Seth Meyers - probably though he was running as a joke. But as it became clear he was serious about running and his talent for tapping xenophobia, fear and hatred propelled him to the fore, they had to come to terms with a stark choice; reject him and risk losing power, or embrace him in a Faustian bargain to secure the Congress. And since the Democrats were screaming that Trump was the devil incarnate, their only response was to rally round him.

Ross and Staw's model of escalating commitment to a failing course of action is instructive here. In those early days, there was little indication that Trump could not step up to the role; but as data emerged over the first year that he was either incapable of rising to the demands of the office or was uninterested in doing so, they were still convinced that the situation was manageable and that his worst excesses could be mitigated and contained.  Now they are both psychologically and publicly committed. To abandon Trump after four years of supporting him makes them look foolish and must likely cause huge cognitive dissonance with the narratives they have had to develop to justify their support.  Now things are getting pretty serious (if Meuller's findings weren't already). Trumps abuse of power for political gain is simple enough for most voters to grasp (in a way that the Dems had hoped the Meuller report might have been but in the end wasn't).

Then there's the Turkey fiasco. Now the consequences of Trump's decisions by uninformed whim are having highly visible and salient consequences; people are dying and American troops are in harms way as a direct result. That is potentially so politically damaging that even Lindsey Graham, usually a shameless apologist for Trump's excesses, has criticized him.

And while Michael Cohen's conviction and Paul Manafort's were problematic, they were swept aside and ultimately under the rug by the torrent of disinformation from Fox, the barrage of lies from the White House and the seemingly never ending miss-steps and chaos Trump manages to create. But Giuliani's actions are arguably more serious. First they fit an emerging pattern of rule breaking and potentially criminal misconduct. Second it brings Trump's personal agenda squarely in opposition to America's national interests and the processes of government that the nation relies on in its foreign relations.

Combine this with the growing list of failed initiatives - North Korea, Iran, the Middle-East peace initiative, and trade with China - and the two accomplishments - the juicing of the economy and the markets with tax cuts and the appointment of two conservative justices to the Supreme Court - begin to look less convincing reasons to renew his term.  But Trump still whips up fervor among his base, sufficient to instill fear of a primary challenge in the House races, so their self-loathing and disdain for him are outweighed by fear and self-preservation instincts. But the longer they stay with the sinking ship the less they can claim any semblance of moral authority. Republicans, in embracing Trump, have become the party of weak, self-interested, immoral, lackeys. Until they rediscover some backbone we seem to be left with a somewhat unpalatable choice; more chaos, rule-breaking, dishonesty and corrupt behavior, or a pretty radical experiment in left wing ideas that the majority of independent voters may, with some justification, be very wary of.