Taliban win the long game

I have written about the US occupation of Afghanistan and the decision to withdraw (April 18th, July 14th) and there is little in broad terms I can add to those posts. It was almost inevitable that once the Americans (and NATO) forces left Afghanistan, the Taliban would take back the country.  They live there, it's their home; the Americans are there temporarily and it's not their home. That gives the Taliban numerous strategic advantages; they can be more patient, they have better intelligence; they have a better understanding of the culture and the political situation on the ground (something the Americans appear to lack); and they are hard to identify from other Afghan civilians. So their resurgence was not a surprise. What was perhaps surprising was the remarkable speed with which this unfolded, in a matter of days rather than weeks. Some have dubbed this, with some justification, another "Saigon moment" for America. 

There are a few comments, perhaps more of a post script, that might help explain the surprising speed with which the Taliban had retaken the country.

First was corruption and mismanagement in the Afghan government; corruption undermined support for the government particularly amongst the security forces, many of whom, according to the Economist, had not been paid for months. While Biden had said that it was time for the Afghans take complete responsibility for defending their country from the Taliban, it seems his administration, perhaps from incomplete intelligence, may not have understood the fragility of the armed forces' morale and commitment. That has led to desertions in the field as the Taliban advanced. 

Second, like many things (Climate change for example) the worse things get the faster they deteriorate. As the speed of the Taliban advance became clear this week that contributed to a sense of inevitability and further undermined the will of Afghan soldiers to put their lives at risk for a government many didn't believe in.  Just as the Taliban were well equipped with Russian material (AK-47s and grenade launchers) they had seized after they drove out the Russian thirty years ago, I expect we will see them driving captured Humvees and brandishing American supplied M-16s before long.  

The Russians lasted 9 years, 1 month, 3 weeks and 1 day, according to Wikipedia; the America almost made it to its twenty year anniversary.  And the appropriate gift for a twenty year anniversary? China.