Almost a year ago I presented a probability decision tree (minus any explicit probability estimates) showing the different outcomes in Trump's attempt to avoid accountability for his involvement in the January 6th insurrection. Thanks to several Trump appointed and likely Trump loyalist judges, in his trial and on the Supreme Court, Trump's January 6th trial will not take place before the election and, in all likelihood, will never take place. So the bottom half of the full decision tree disappears.
Not only is his path to freedom now much simpler, SCOTUS has also changed the odds of his conviction by muddying the waters in its recent decision on presidential immunity. By asserting that a president cannot be indicted for "official acts" the door is open to classify his multiple attempts to overturn the 2020 election and then to encourage his MAGA army to "fight like hell" as part of his presidential duties. The flake slate of electors, the call to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "find 11,780 votes, which is one more that we have because we won the state", his inflammatory speech on January 6th and his cynical decision not to quell the riot; all are likely excluded from his trial and thus help shield him from legal accountability for his attempted election subversion. He played the long game, bending the judiciary to his side, and it looks like he won.
No comments:
Post a Comment