Friday, January 31, 2020

Impeachment #7.2 - Implications for Britain

With the failure of the Democrat's effort to remove Trump from office, his election in November is all but assured. And on the day that the UK leaves the EU, that has consequences for Britain.

Today, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland -- united perhaps only until Scotland holds another referendum on secession -- leaves the EU and begins the task of renegotiating access to European markets and simultaneously finding new trading partners.

Boris Johnson's hope that Trump will come through for Britain is entirely misplaced; as alike as they are in many ways, if one thing is clear it's that Trump is will use all the leverage at his disposal to benefit America and his friends.

In particular, since he'd like money from pharmaceutical companies to help in his reelection, and they want to be able to sell product without facing a monopsony, he will condition any trade deal with Britain on a relaxation of the NHS bargaining over prices for drugs. While that won't put Britain into the same category as the US in terms of overpaying for health care, it will put additional strain on the NHS budget. And since Johnson won't raise taxes to make up for the increase in costs, and the bonanza from EU withdrawal is very likely "creative accounting", the services the NHS provides will suffer.

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