The Troubles, and cold civil war

Some trajectories are predictable; the current state of race relations isn't. We have many police forces; and many of them have cultures that are tacitly racist. When a police office kills a black man, whether or not they are held to account (which in many instances they appear not to be), it stokes anger and distrust in the Black community. Eventually that erupts into violent protest, mainly causing property damage. Then along come some armed white paramilitary types who shoot some of the demonstrators; their actions are publicly endorsed by the police. Trust declines and anger builds in the Black (and Ally) community: and the cycle continues to escalate. There is no end in sight to break this spiral of violence. Certainly nothing from this administration will help; and mostly it will inflame. On this trajectory there is no good outcome.     

If unchecked, this will create nothing short of a "cold civil war"in which both left and right, social justice campaigners and white supremacists increasingly face of in the streets with increasing violence, escalating use of firearms, and a police force that either withdraws or sides with the right and white supremacists. Neither side will don uniforms and organize like the two sides and the Civil War, but will more resemble terrorist cells, loosely linked, self organizing but guided by ideology and hate. As the Troubles showed, it is a state of affairs that could last for years or decades.  And even when peace is officially declared, the anger and resentment will linger for generations. 

The damage to society could be far greater than was suffered in Northern Ireland for the simple reason that for most people, whether they were a Prod or a Mic wasn't immediately obvious. That allowed for some semblance of non-partisan interaction between the two sides. When the side you are on is seemingly signaled by the color of your skin, that avenue for normal exchange is closed off.

Another four years of Trump-ism will set this in motion irrevocably. We are close to the brink and once crossed the cold civil war will be a blight on the nation for generations. That in large measure is what is at stake in the upcoming election.