Monday, August 31, 2020

The 5-Minute Fix is indeed a trip

Amber Phillips wrote in the Washington Post's "The 5-Minute Fix" today that the shooting of a Trump supporter in Portland, OR actually plays into Biden's hands. Sadly, that's symptomatic of left-wing wishful thinking.
  1. Phillips argues that more have died from covid-19 than from this kind of violence so the lack of a plan from the current administration is the critical issue. Here's why that doesn't fly. First the connection between the left and one very graphic death is a very short straight line, ultimately provable. By contrast, the link between Trump's inaction and the covid-19 deaths is much harder case to make. While many of us believe it to be the case, Trump and his surrogates will argue that the steps they took were important in limiting the number of deaths to "only" 180 thousand and, hypothetically without Trump's actions it would have been much worse. Biden's only counter is an equally un-provable hypothetical that with other actions the death toll might have been much lower. So that's effectively a draw.
  2. Next she claims that the violence is happening now and therefore Trump's administration must own it (in part because they have stoked the flames). But Trump will argue that it's not a nation-wide problem and that there is a correlation between Democratic states and cities, left wing activists and polices and the violence. The fact that there is an unobserved variable (poverty and inequality) that drives all three will be lost on most people. 
  3. Finally she points out that Biden condemned the violence a long while ago. That will only help Trump make his point; if Biden can't control his radical base, what does that portend for the country if he's elected?   
Unless the Dems wake up, they will drive a comfortable lead into the ditch and we will all pay the price.

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