Monday, July 1, 2013

I didn't see that one coming.

Today, the Egyptian Army issued an ultimatum to President Morsi: "sort it out, or we will". In hindsight this should not have come as a surprise. The army has long been the guarantor of stability in Egypt and with the growing scale of the unrest and dissatisfaction with Morsi and the Brotherhood, its patience seems finally to have run out.

The rebellion seems to be a coalescing of economic, secular and Mubarak establishment concerns. They are asking for a do-over of the election. It's a pity that the secularists, central to the Arab Spring that unseated Mubarak, couldn't have gotten their act together before last year's election; they made a pretty dismal showing. On the other hand, they may have - somewhat naively - believed Morsi when he promised not to turn Egypt into an Islamic state. They now risk coming across as spoilers who couldn't accept the results of the democratic process. The signal that sends is disastrous: "everyone needs to renounce violence and embrace democracy; except when we don't like the result".

Even the brightest future looks fairly grim. Morsi will be ousted, the generals plan will lead to an election probably next year, hopefully a more broadly representative government installed, and the constitution amended to purge of  the religious extremists' power grab. But the unrest has turned from a debate about policy to one of faith and that's terrible news for any hopes of compromise. Having failed ultimately failed by peaceful means to get its way, the Brotherhood could well resort to violence and acts of terror to further its aims; that won't  be good for Egypt, for the Middle East or the rest of the world.


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