Michael Tushman has written about the era of ferment, that period of time just after a major technological change that leads to paradigm shift. That's exactly where higher education is today. The internet has made possible a wide variety of alternatives to the traditional classroom model but it will take several years, perhaps a generation, before we see clear 'winners' emerging and a new standard or paradigm for higher-ed.
Higher education, to use Michael Porter's five forces framework, has been content to relax behind huge entry barriers; the high cost of getting a PhD and the limited supply of new faculty, not to mention the issue of brand, reputation and industry self-accreditation makes it hard if not impossible for for new entrants. When was the last time you heard of a new conventional brick and mortar university being established? And that's supported fairly high prices, regardless of whether the cost is borne by the student, the taxpayer, or some combination of both.
The threat comes not from new entrants using the existing model but from substitution. Potential competitors are not going to be institutions full of professors with PhDs and doctoral candidates/TAs but internet start-ups coming from the technology space, who are buying the content they need and innovating the delivery system.
Solutions like Udacity may only impart 50% as much knowledge as traditional universities; but their ability to potentially do so for orders of magnitude lower cost (and to some extent commensurately lower prices to consumers of education) may not be something current educators like, but may meet both a market need and a broader societal one too.
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