Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Comment on Congressman Tom McClintock's Facebook timeline

I remain doubtful that the cut in corporate taxes will flow to investment, new job creation and higher wages; more likely it will be used to pay dividends and finance share buy-backs. This helps those with significant equity holdings or pension plans, but I imagine that is a relatively small proportion of your constituents.  The recent run-up in stock market is a pricing-in of the expected increase in corporate earnings. If the market expected that taxes would be used to pay higher wages, the impact on earnings would be a wash and share prices would not have moved. That they did suggests that the markets expect most if not all of the tax saving to be passed directly on to shareholders. 

Moreover, few if any economists expected the corporate tax cut to produce the administration's forecast 6% GDP growth, needed for the bill to be revenue neutral. The consensus is that the bill will add $1.5T to the national debt. The likelihood is that Speaker Ryan will now propose reducing the deficit by cutting social security. As long as this is done progressively, that may not be such a bad thing - but a simple across-the-board cut will fall disproportionately on your constituents. 

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