Impeachment #1

The question isn't "did he try to extort the leader of a foreign country to provide information for use in his election campaign, making a meeting with him, and Congressionally approved military aid, contingent on doing so". That's now abundantly clear: it is "Yes, he did". The facts are not in dispute.

The only question is does doing so rise to the level of a "high crime or misdemeanor" sufficient to remove him from office. And it appears the answer to that question is also clear. If you are a sitting Democratic Senator it's "Yes" and if you're a sitting Republican senator, it's "No". That's not going to change. Nothing short of shooting someone in 5th Avenue will cause the Republicans in the Senate to think otherwise.

For the record, the whistle-blower's testimony is completely immaterial. Everything he set out in his complaint has been corroborated by witnesses closer to the alleged transgression than he (or she) was, so her testimony is not only moot and a distraction but of lesser value that that of those who have already testified in the Congressional closed door hearings. And outing him would send a message that the executive branch cannot be held to account even when it goes completely rogue.

We are about to enter the public relations phase of the process and the Republicans have shown themselves vastly more adept at managing the messaging. The Dems complexly blew the Meuller report which should have been a clear case of obstruction of justice, the charges that caused Richard Nixon to resign. And they are in danged to blowing the Ukraine scandal too. Jim Jordan, the new GOP's point man on the House intelligence committee is a master at distraction, obfuscation and "whataboutism", and he will run rings around the calm and deliberate, but ultimately boring and non-telegenic Adam Schiff.

When the House moves articles of impeachment against the President relating to the Ukraine scandal, as it looks set to do, and the Senate then acquits the him, what matters is how the hearings and the messaging influence independent voters in swing states.  If the Dems screw this up, which they look likely to do, Trump will be back in the White House for another term.