Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Impeachment #2

The numbers haven't moved. After two weeks of public testimony, the number of Republicans and Democrats wanting impeachment and removal was almost exactly where it was before they began.  Disappointing as that is for the Dems, it is not entirely surprising. The most obvious go-to explanations are" party affiliation; tribalism; and news source echo chambers.

But that's inconsistent with the fact that the polling numbers did move when the scandal first broke. If these hypotheses were true, the numbers would not have moved at all even then. This suggests another explanation; that like rumors that move stock prices before any official announcement, people had already 'baked in' the information before the public hearings. Those who, on reading the transcript of the Zelensky call, viewed Trump's alleged behavior as wrong were already persuaded and the hearings merely corroborated what they already strongly suspect to be true.

That in turn suggests that Trump's consistently dishonest and inappropriate behavior had already prepared the ground and rendered the Zelensky phone call far less shocking than it would have been had it been made by any of Trump's predecessors. That's a sad reflection on how far he has undermined trust in the presidency. 

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