Wednesday, April 8, 2020

The end is in sight - but not for everyone

There seem to be signs, according to knowledgeable officials, that the exponential growth of covid cases is slowing and may soon peak if it has not already done so. Since we are using deaths and hospital admissions as the metric and both are lagged indicators, it is possible that new cases are already on the way down. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

But that light isn't as bright for everyone. Anyone who is in the high risk category (those with respiratory ailments or the over 60s) is unlikely to have contracted the disease and will have no immunity. And while those now circulating freely will probably be immune and non-contagious, it's by no means a certainty, so at-riskers interacting with them run still the risk of infection with the serious consequences that entails.

The only good news is that by that time, the health case system will have the capacity to hospitalize them without triageing admissions.

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