California's Governor Newsome has been talking about reopening based on the numbers. Austria is using a 14 day window to gauge the impact of a step-wise approach. In this model I compare three scenarios: complete and indefinite re-opening after shelter-in-place is lifted; complete re-opening after shelter-in-place is lifted but reimposed if number trend upward for 14 straight days and lifted if they trend down for for 14 straight days; and finally a partial re-opening after shelter-in-place is lifted but reimposed if number trend upward for 14 straight days and lifted to that 'partial' level if they trend down for for 14 straight days.
The results suggest that a total return to normal behavior whenever the numbers trend upward leads to an oscillating cycle of relaxation and re imposition of the shelter-in-place restrictions. Moreover the virus appears to circulate for longer than if it simply burnt itself out after a single shelter-in-place event.
However a return not to 'normal' but to a 'new normal', modeled here as a 20% reduction in social interactions, significantly dampens the oscillations and reduces infection rates faster than the second scenario.
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