Unexpected consequences

Tushman and Anderson (1996) wrote about technological discontinuities, disruptive technological changes that give rise to an era of ferment in which new technological standards emerge.

Covid-19 is will represent a similarly disruptive discontinuity. Many things will change in the new post-covid-19 normal.  Air travel will fall dramatically and air fares rise sharply. Tourism across continents or very long distances will stop (there no points taking a two week vacation to visit the UK if you have to be quarantined for two weeks when you arrive and then another two when you return. So leisure time will be spent at more local destinations.

Global supply chains will become more local with production being repatriated. With a disentangling of physical trade relationships, may come a similar rationalization of financial flows and interconnections.
 
Public transit will be able to accommodate only a fraction of their usual daily volume; flexible working hours will help but won't be enough. People will have to walk or cycle to work, meaning a preference for more local employment. More people may work from home; but if that is to be effective they will need more space, leading to an exodus from very dense cities where space is at a premium.

As knowledge workers work from home, time saved in not having to commute might allow them to be more involved locally, strengthening local civic engagement. That might lead to further disengagement with federal politics in the US, perhaps similar to the way may Europeans feel about the European Parliament.

There is talk of transforming education with on-line making access possible in the short-term with social distancing. Along with that may come a push for universal high-speed internet access which will further facilitate some of the transformations.

As we reflect on the lessons of covid-19, changes to health care and inequality may come, though that depends on getting past the partisan and cultural divide.     

Many expect these changes to be temporary; but in may cases these will not be reversible and so the impact will be permanent. 

This is in inflection point in history; there will be unexpected consequences, of course, but if one thing is certain it is that the future will be very different from the past.