Sunday, December 13, 2020

Divergence

 

Red states have a preponderance of people who support Trump, and as a result believe that covid is a hoax or not that serious, that mask wearing is of little benefits and an infringement on their "civil liberties",  that mitigation efforts in general are unnecessary and that the vaccine is either of little use or a plot by Bill Gates to implant microchips into their brains (OK not all red-staters think that but more do in red than blue states).  

Blue states, by and large, distrust everything Trump says, think that covid is a big problem, that mitigation is important and most believe the vaccine will be safe and effective. (There are of course some, particularly among African Americans who, for understandable reasons, distrust the vaccine). 

That suggests two distinct paths to herd immunity. In blue state, mitigation and vaccination will provide the main path to immunization, while in red states, becoming infected and developing immunity naturally will be the principle route.  

If vaccines are distributed based on demand the, synergy between these two routes will shorten the time to herd immunity.  If not, red states will have vaccines no one wants and blue state won't have the vaccines they do, and we will remain in purgatory for longer. 

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