The outcome of the second impeachment of former reality TV host and president Donald Trump is, and has always been, a forgone conclusion. He will be acquitted thanks to the self-interest and lack of principle of forty-odd GOP senators. Unless...
It is conceivable that some GOP senators figure out that if they continue with the Trumpification of their party, they may jeopardize the party's long term future and even their own. Those on the moderate side could loose to the Democrats and those in the Trumpiest states could loose to more extreme primary opponents. Almost all would prefer Trump out of the picture, even though they can't say so publicly, as his erratic behavior and unpopularity outside his fevered base remains something they can't control and represents a potential danger to their party's popularity.
Which leads us to the calculus; if they conclude that enough GOP Senators will vote to convict and so bar Trump from office, his force in the political realm would be diminished and they need not fear political retribution. On the other hand if he's not convicted, a vote in the affirmative would lead to Trump's exacting revenge and the end of their political careers. So that's their homework assignment; find out where all the GOP votes in the Senate might be and weigh the odds of Trump as a spent force against voting to acquit and having to live with the label of subversive enablers (or in some cases unindicted co-conspirator).
Their decisions may rest on whether they can find their way back to the door where they checked their consciences and their principles (at least, those that came in with some). Given their behavior over the last few years, I'm not wagering anything that they'll be able to.
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