Friday, November 12, 2021

Inflation

When demand exceeds supply, firms can either keep prices the same and stock out, or raise prices which has the effect of reducing demand.  Covid has had an odd effect on both supply and demand. For the lock down it reduces the demand services (no one was eating out or taking trips abroad) and but had little effect on demand for goods; if anything it may have risen as money not spent on services shifted to spending n goods. At the same time covid disrupted supply; less was made as firms adapted to the demands of health protection and different work practices needed to combat the pandemic. And the "Great  Resignation", a function of people having to reevaluate their priorities, made permanent some of the reductions in service provision, further bolstering demand for goods. 

The result has been a steep rise in prices with the rate of inflation more than tripling to well north of 5%. Some (including Paul Krugman) has argued that the situation is temporary since it was cased by the supply chain disruption that will abate in 2022. However, some features are structural shifts will won't return to the status quo pre-pandeminc. Moreover price rises and price reductions are seldom symmetric; prices rise quickly and fall slowly (if at all). So even if the recent price rises were a result of a temporary disequilibrium between supply and demand, once consumers have gotten used to paying more, prices may not come done much. So inflation this year and next will likely be well above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. 

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