Talks to arrange a ceasefire are going nowhere: Russian negotiators have no deal-making authority since to give ground would anger Putin; that would not be good for them. Whether the war goes on or stops depends entirely on Putin's whim. He now has no way out. Dividing Ukraine down the middle and leaving him the eastern part of the county is probably not enough from him; he wants it all.
Given the unexpectedly slow pace of the Russian advance, he is now intense pressure, externally and to some extent internally. As Zanny Minton-Beddoes put it: "Putin cannot win this war and he cannot afford to loose it". Stress may cloud Putin's judgement, particularly when he lives in an group-think information bubble, so he cannot be depended on to act rationally.
That leads to a consideration of the possibility of escalation. It now seems well within the realms of possibility that Putin will use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons. Given the West's decision not to respond forcefully when Assad used chemical weapons in Syria, Putin may well be expecting the West to step back again, making him more likely to use them. If it does not, we will be a step or two higher on the escalation ladder. Where that stops without an obvious "off-ramp" for Putin is hard to say and Armageddon is no longer just fantasy.
No comments:
Post a Comment