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| (c) Economist 2022 |
The first is and overarching reason is timing. Sanctions, even those just implemented, despite already having profound effects on the Russian economy, are widely thought to require weeks or months to achieve their desired effect. But Ukraine likely has only days not weeks in which it can hold out.
The second is the mechanism. Sanctions are meant to be persuasive at several levels; on Putin himself, on his oligarchs and on the Russian people as a whole. They will not deter Putin personally since for him this is no longer about his personal wealth but about power, control, his standing as a world leader, and his grandiose ambitions to reconstruct the old USSR. If he wins he stays in power and will have access to all the money he wants. For Putin, alternatives to a win are two; he backs down, but remains in office (in the totalitarian state he has built he will never loose another election) although his standing on the world stage will be reduced to pariah. But if he refuses to back down, the end results is the same. So there is no upside for him to back down now.
Sanctions on the oligarchs will only cause Putin to change course if the oligarchs collectively believe he can be deposed; while Putin remains in power, they are beholden to him for their wealth, at least that not yet frozen by the West, but more importantly for their future earnings. They have no real power themselves unless they can either persuade the Russian parliament to act to curb Putin's power or persuade the Russian military to mount a coup. Both the military and members of the Duma must in turn weigh the chances of success; should legislative measures to rein Putin or a coup fail, all those involved, directly or indirectly, will likely face long prison or death sentences. Weighing such odds depends on an assessment of outcome probabilities. That in turn depends on a critical mass willing to support such a course of action. Developing that critical mass takes many quiet conversations and time.
The last mechanism by which sanctions act is through their effect on the Russian people. The there are only two ways in which ordinary Russians get any say. The first is through the ballot box. But not only is an election too far distant to matter, even were an election to be held tomorrow, because Putin controls the press, the media and hence the narrative, he would likely win even without rigging the election. Oddly, sanctions work to Putin's advantage. As the Iran's Ayatollahs have done since sanctions were imposed on their country, Putin will telling the Russian people that their suffering is due to evil regimes in the West who are trying to destroy Mother Russia.
Where does this leave Ukraine? If sanctions are the only tool the West is prepared to use against Putin, Ukraine will fall; it may take weeks rather than the days Putin had hoped, but in the medium term the end is the same. A Putin-friendly puppet regime will be installed, freedom of speech will be harshly curbed using the same tactics as Putin is now using in Russia, and Ukrainians will be subjugated into the new Russian empire. They may fight an insurgency but displacing another pro-Russian leader from their country will be far more difficult than the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych. Putin may even reinstall Yanukovych, someone who was not only loyal to Putin when he was president before, but like so many of those Putin has promoted and richly rewarded, he will owe his position entirely to Putin's largess. Putin was upset by Yanukovych's ouster in 2014 and will make sure not to let that happen again.
If sanctions are an ineffective tool, what then? If only military action is sufficient to stop Putin's current, not to mention future land-grabs, does the West have the stomach for what could easily escalate into a nuclear holocaust? That, sadly, is a question we will be facing in the weeks ahead.
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