Saturday, October 31, 2020

Post-election blues

An early Trump lead followed by a blue wave and mail-in ballots are counted sweeping that aside has all the makings of a dystopian political thriller. Except this is not a screen plan nor is it a drill. It's likely to happen, as evidenced by something I never in my wildest dreams expected to see: store owners boarding up their shops in anticipation of a violent reaction, whatever the election results begin to reveal on November 3rd. In failed states this happens; but in a supposedly civilized democracy?  

What then might we expect? In close races in swing states, expect the GOP to sue to stop vote counting and challenge the process. Even as that is going on expect right-wing militias to intimidate election officials to interfere with vote counting; any delay helps the right get cases in front of sympathetic course and ultimately to the Supreme Court. These vigilante groups will be given relatively free rein by law enforcement who will be largely sympathetic, favoring a red outcome, and fearful they they are out numbered and out-gunned. 

The courts will likely end up curtailing the tally prematurely. If that does not deliver the victory Trump wants, expect him to declare massive voter fraud and call (implicitly if not explicitly) for an armed insurrection ('will no one rid me of this turbulent ex-vice president?') to prevent him being evicted from the the White House. Expect more well armed thugs to take to the streets. And if the left pushes back either with protests or riots, expect him to demand that the National Guard are called out to put them down. With extreme force.   

This is one scenario; there are doubtless many others. But I am fairly certain, and with a heavy heart, predict that before Christmas, political violence will have resulted in scores of murders mostly at the hands of the alt-right and the police. And that may be the best case scenario.  

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