Four risks

First, foreign interference. Clearly Russia and China, not to mention the DPRK, all want another Trump term. The first two have well developed cyber operations and Russia has already shown its hand four years ago. All see how easy it has been to manipulate Trump. North Korea still has its nukes and has gotten lots of air time on the international stage. Russia has proven completely immune from push back from Trump over: 2016 election interference; the poisoning of a dissident in the UK; propping up Bashar al Assad in Syria. China has had little to worry about as it clamps down on free speech, conducts what seems like ethnic cleansing of the Uyghurs, and strips Hong Kong of its special status granted in its treaty granting independence from Britain. And those are just the actors we know about.

Then there is voter suppression, whether in the form of a lack of polling places in strategic areas and the purging of voter rolls orchestrated by red state governors, a lack of mail-in ballots, not to mention the likelihood of the results being disputed, perhaps in court, if on November 4th the results are close but it looks like Trump might not have won. And there is always the potential for a random third party candidate, Kanye West for example, to come in as a spoiler, siphon of some of the African American vote and hand Trump the victory. 

Third is the potential for errors in polling. Although pollsters are confident they right this time, there are reasons to give at least a little credence to the Fox/Trump axis of evil which is asserting that the polls don't reflect his actual level of support among voters. They claim, interestingly, that lots of people will vote for him but are embarrassed to admit that to pollsters. It that's the case, it suggests they know what they would be doing (voting Trump back in) is wrong but will do it anyway. Either that or they are being super strategic, lulling Biden's people into a false sense of security: unlikely I admit. But a comfortable lead for Biden might induce complacency, reduce his turnout and let Trump sneak back in.       

Finally, and despite what most commentators are now saying, it is possible that things might change dramatically before November and Trump's sagging campaign might recover. One thing that would mean all bets are off would be the availability of a vaccine. Even if it's not widely deployed, having a vile for Trump to hold up for the cameras would put many concerned American's fears to rest and he could trumpet this as all his doing (the result of his Ward Speed Operation). Then he'd have something very real, very relevant and tangible to sell and that almost certainly would tighten the race.

So let's not count any chickens before their vaccinated.