There can be little doubt, except in the minds of Trump's most deluded supporters that he has botched his handling of the covid-19 pandemic. His hoping it will "magically" go away, his abdication of responsibility to the States, his failure to listen to experts, and his refusal to model important behavior, together have led to a resurgence in cases that is uniquely American. What has become clear is that he is a no more than a huckster, an con-artist, devoid of substance (not to mention ethics or a conscience), incapable of dealing with complexity; in other words inept, incapable and unfit for his office. In organizational terms he would be an example of the Peter Principle (except that governments aren't hierarchies elections aren't won on merit). But the bottom line is that when push came to shove, when he was faced with a real external threat and not just a political problem that he could bully or gas-light his way out of, he has failed: very visibly, and with horrendous consequences.
So Biden, or let's face it anyone less venal and marginally smarter than Trump and that's probably 99% of the population, would have likely beaten him in November. That's not to take anything away from Joe Biden (who though experienced and competent I find a little dull an uninspiring) but to draw attention to the fact that the election is a referendum on Trump's administration. So Biden ought to be looking at an easy win. But that conclusion might be premature. The election is still four months away and a lot can change before November.
What could help Trump turn round his flagging campaign and his declining poll numbers? His best play might be to say that he's still the most gifted manager of all time, a genius among geniuses, but that he was undermined by people in the deep state who intentionally sabotaged his utterly brilliant covid-19 response. Had they simply done what he suggested (which will retroactively be adjusted as needed) we'd all be sitting in the sun drinking margaritas and enjoying the 4 weeks paid vacation he would have granted had he not been betrayed by people who were supposed to be working for him. Or something along those lines.
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