It looks increasingly likely that early next week Europe will once again be at war; or at least Eastern Europe. What initially looked like first a ploy by Russia to extract concessions from NATO and the West, then a possible incursion into the eastern part of Ukraine where the population is mostly Russian-speaking now looks set to be a full stale occupation of a sovereign state. That would effectively move the "iron curtain" almost half way back to its pre-Glasnost / Perestroika position. The West's lack of resolve is reminiscent of the repose to Hitler's occupation of the Sudetenland. Britain was sure that Hitler could be reasoned with. But that hope was in vain. The adage "give them and inch and they take a mile" looks ever more salient.
The thought occurred to me today that Staw and Ross' paper on escalating commitment is partially applicable. Partially in that it is not clear that the course of action is a failing one, but their model of escalating commitment, from psychological to social to political is entirely appropriate here.
Putin's next move, for a long time unpredictable, now seems clear; how the West responds and the efficacy of that response will have ramifications for the international order, not just in Europe but in the Far East as well, for decades to come.
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