... Or not

On Thursday is seemed as if there were signs of Putin hesitating, perhaps having second thoughts about invading Ukraine. It seems that was wrong.  The absurd video of what looked like tiny model tanks on flatbeds crossing a bridge, purportedly returning to barracks, could have been a clue that this was all just a stalling tactic. 

Troop numbers at the Ukrainian border have risen since them to in excess of one hundred  an fifty thousand.  More alarming still is the deployment of short-range nuclear weapons.  Were they to be used, it would be the first time that a nuclear weapon would have been used in a European theatre; the decision-making then begins to look more like the Cuban missile crisis than tanks rolling into Georgia or Crimea. It would not an exaggeration to say we may be on the brink of a nuclear war in Europe.  

If Putin needed to stall to make ready his invasion plans, one must hope that besides the West's diplomatic efforts, it has prepared an immediate and significant response to invasion, one that will hit home in hours rather than days or weeks. Sanctions may change Putin's calculus over the long term but they won't stop his tanks next week. The West's tepid response to both Russia's invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea may have given Putin a sense of security (whether false or otherwise remains to be seen) and he has correctly deduced that first movers do have strategic advantage.  While the West plays catch-up, he can, and indeed has, prepared Russia to buffer itself from the West's long signaled response. Unless the West has some tactic we don't know about, Putin's hand, which he is playing close to his chest, seems for the moment far stronger.