Through a glass darkly

After four days of fighting, Putin's forces have not yet taken the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, nor have they managed to depose its government. Volodymyr Zelensky bravely decided to remain in Kyiv, inspiring many Ukrainians to fight rather than flee, which may have been a factor in slowing the Russian advance.  

In addition to additional sanctions, the West today announced shipments of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine via Poland. It may be too little, too late but since the invasion has not gone to plan, they may still arrive in time to bring fighting to a stalemate.  I am reminded of Israel's stand-off with Hamas and Hezbollah in the Gaza Strip.  Since its highly unlikely that the Ukrainian forces could repel the Russian invasion, a stalemate would be the best likely outcome for Ukraine.  While Putin's offer to negotiate is almost certainly in bad faith, it might afford an opportunity for a temporary cease-fire allowing the West to resupply the Ukrainian armed forces with the weapons they desperately need to keep the Russians carrying out regime change. 

Very worrying is Putin's state of mind. His vituperative rhetoric combined with his miscalculation about both the Ukrainians' and the West's responses to his assault raise questions about his rationality. His decision to ready strategic nuclear weapons looks like an act of desperation; one can only hope that he is bluffing.   If not, we will find out whether the strategists who predicted that the use of battle-field nuclear weapons would be containable and not escalate to the use of long range intercontinental weapons were right. Their argument was predicated on actors on both sides being completely rational; it is unclear weather Putin is.  

While it's comforting to know that now we have serious people with their fingers on the button on this side of the pond, Russia's launch codes are in the hands of just one paranoid, possibly psychotic, individual. Those in West who are paying attention will not sleep well this coming week.