Timing

Yesterday Vladimir Putin recognized Donbass and Luhansk, two regions in the east of Ukraine, as "independent republics" and promptly dispatched "peace-keeping" troops. The Biden administration did act, imposing sanctions, but in a very limited way, only on companies doing business in Donbass and Luhansk - so effectively nothing. The New York Times editorial argued today that it was too soon to pull the trigger on the threatened strong sanctions. That raises the question when is the right time?

Putin is not going to declare war; no one does that any more. That's as out-dated as challenging your enemy to pistols at dawn.  It is increasingly difficult to say exactly when hostilities start. Is a cyber attack by a foreign government an act of war? If so Russia has been at war with the US since 2016 if not earlier. Is a drone strike? If is it, America has been at war with numerous countries for decades.  Is artillery fire across country borders? How about one soldier straying across the border. What if it were a platoon; or a battalion?  

Because the point at which war begins has become indeterminate, when to impose sanctions becomes problematic. If, as the NYT suggests, one holds off until the smoke clears it may be far too late. By making many very small moves, Putin increases the ambiguity about when hostilities can be said to have reached a level that justifies the "big sanction package". And that's what Putin is banking on.