What has led Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine now (or at least early next week)? Little had changed on the ground. The West and NATO have not moved short or medium range weapons nearer to Russia. They have not positioned more troops nearer the Russian border. So it can't be a rising level of threat to which Russia is responding. Perhaps it was the ousting of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych? But that was eight years ago. Another theory is that Europe, and Germany in particular will be muted in its response to a military incursion by its dependence on Russian energy? But Nord Steam 2 is not yet operational so Germany's dependency would have been much greater a year from now, so that looks unlikely as a factor.
What has changed in recent years is Donald Trump. It's not his fawning behavior toward Putin that may have led Putin to decide now is the time, but rather the sentiment his election uncovered and then amplified; that the US has no interest in maintaining the international order and little interest in conflicts that have no proximity to, or impact on, the US. Trump's America First approach, and its resonance with his acolytes on the right and even some anti-war folk on the left was enough indication to Putin that any repercussions would be manageable for him to take the decision to invade Ukraine.
And so, bizarrely, not only will Trump have done enormous damage to democracy at home, he will also have helped shred the international order that has prevailed since the end of the Second World War. Not only will the world be less safe and more conflict-prone as a result, but the economic prosperity enjoyed by countries, including America, that depended on trade and relative geopolitical stability, is now in serious jeopardy. He should be Time magazine's man of the century.
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