Putin may just have blinked

A Russian T-72B3 tank fires as troops take part
in drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range. AP

Six days ago I wrote that war in Ukraine seemed inevitable. But the anticipated day came and went, and on the day troops were supposed to have begun the assault on Ukraine, Putin said he was moving some away from their forward positions (though whether that was true is still debatable). 

My rationale was that in threatening Ukraine without actually invading, Putin had created, from his point of view, the worst possible outcome: the West was now unified against him, it was taking steps to insulate itself from his economic leverage through sales of gas, and it had not made the concessions Putin had been demanding. So there was and still is no further downside to invading besides the losses he has already racked up other than the loss of life of the Russian soldiers he would be sending in (for which he may care little other than for the impact that might have on his domestic political standing). 

On the upside, he would expand the Russian empire, something apparently dear to his heart. Yet he is hesitating, which may suggest that he is having second thoughts about going through with an invasion. His bluff appears to have been called and it is possible he may have folded. Of course it is still way too soon to tell as there remain over a hundred thousand troops at the ready near the Ukrainian border, and until they return to barracks, he could still invade at a moments notice. But assuming at least for the moment that he has, if not blinked, at least had a moment's hesitation, that in and of itself is significant. We will likely never know his thinking yet I'm sure intelligence analysts, think-tanks and journalists will be debating what this means for days, weeks if not years to come.