A Flawed Deal

The "Deal of the Century" as Trump, with uncharacteristic humility, is calling Jared's plan to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is dommed; but that may not be unintentional. Like so much of Trump's initiatives it's more about the sizzle and less about the steak, how it plays on TV rather than what it might actually accomplish.

At least as being reported, the plan legitimizes the settlements Israel built in the West Bank; it does not guarantee right of return; it does not halt but only temporarily freezes further annexation of disputed land in the West Bank and Israel may well continue to expand its settlements. And in return there is a promise, unlikely to be kept, for $50 billion to support the new quasi-independent State of Palestine. 

The plan reflects Kushner's inexperience and naivety; offering a deal that is in essence a very large bribe is not a viable solution to three generations of killing and hatred, as anyone from Northern Ireland could have told him. Second, he appears not to have learned anything from the US' nation-building debacle in Iraq (or for the matter in post cold war Russia). The institutions of a well functioning society cannot be created out of thin air. Their efficacy depends on trust, which takes years to build (and much less time to erode as his father-in-law is so deftly demonstrating).           

However given international reaction, particularly in the Arab world, this is likely to be the end of any serious support for Palestinian statehood. The world, it seems, has grown tired of 70 years of conflict and now simply wants to turn away and move on.

What that means for the stability of the region is an open question; my worst case scenario prediction is that the region will unfold as another ugly Syria-esque situation. The Palestinians will refuse the deal, violence will increase, Israel will do much as Bashar Al Assad did and create a refugee crisis as it annexes the Gaza strip and the West Bank; and the world, increasingly nationalistic and inwardly focused, will eventually come to terms with the de facto reality on the ground.