Iran this evening responded to Donald Trump's assassination of Qasem Suleimani but launching a ballistic missile strike from within Iran at US military targets in Iraq. A demonstrable response was expected. As well informed commentators noted (and as I did also) this was in part an inevitable effort to placate an angry domestic audience that was aggrieved that its sovereignty has been violated.
From what is being reported, the strike appears to have been carefully designed and calibrated to signal Iran's capabilities and its willingness to use them, while at the same time causing relatively few casualties, none of whom appear to be American. It provides a turning point at which deescalation might be achieved; the strike assuages Iranian domestic ire but does so without crossing Trump's red-line of another American death.
This is a moment of truth for Trump and the country.
His choice is clear. He can back down from his intemperate tweeting and ill-considered impulsive decision making, and turn instead to the diplomats to talk both sides down from the ledge. Of course, that's problematic since Mike Pompeo, who is more consistently bellicose than Trump, heads the State Department. But that would be the thoughtful, statesman-like and courageous move. And I very much doubt he's is up to it.
A more likely outcome is that his insecurity, vanity and fear of appearing to lose face will prevail; he will up the ante with a strike against targets inside Iran, to all intents and purposes thereby declaring war. If this is where we are headed, Trump will have single-handedly started a war of choice.
His decision in the next few hours could reshape the world order and have irrevocable consequences for years to come; it is, without doubt, the most critical moment, not only of his presidency, but the most momentous for the country since deciding to invade Iraq.
While Trump must take responsibility for the mess we are now in and the graver one we likely will be in by tomorrow, the GOP must shoulder an appreciable portion of blame. Its failure to stand up to Trump makes it complicit; its members stood quietly by as he emerged as the front-runner in the 2016 primaries; they allowed him to lie to the public on a daily basis without challenge or correction; many of them blithely repeated his lies; they looked the other way as he violated the constitution and the separation of powers. They have created a monster (or at least allowed one to assume the throne) and we will all be the lucky beneficiaries as he continues to flounder, causing mayhem and carnage. For any thinking Americans now having second thoughts about their voting choices in 2016, all I can say is "you had fair warning".
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