Impeachment #7.1 - What next

As of 11am today (January 31st, 2020) it appears as though the the Senate will vote not to hear additional testimony or subpoena and consider any additional evidence.  Among Republicans, there seem to be two camps; those who see nothing wrong with Trump's actions, and those who think it wrong but not sufficient to warrant removal from office.  Since it is thus very unlikely that Trump will be convicted in the Senate, the question arises; what next?

No doubt Trump will declare victory (indeed, he prevailed in his case) and try to leverage that into campaign contributions and votes. It is also likely that he will now actively exploit the precedent that has been set, that in effect he is untouchable. The free pass that Congress has in essence afforded him opens the door for no end of abuse of office in the run up to the 2020 election. This has to be the Democrats' worst nightmare; a rogue chief executive with no constraints at all.

And while the House might continue to pursue its investigations, its hope that using the impeachment process to pry open the White House cone of silence is dashed. Its only remedy is through the courts, and the relatively slow pace at which arguments will move through the judicial system make this evenue moot for the November election.

While it has been largely understood that the impeachment process was never going to result in Trump's removal from office, and was therefore principally about shining a spotlight on his conduct, that effort has largely failed. At the same time it has given Trump licence to reoffend and since jeopardy would seem to be attached, so no further action, at least on this case, can be brought.

The Democrat's lack of appreciation of the effectiveness of their opponent's ruthless disregard of political norms could also play out in their selection of their candidate for the presidential election.  The mood in much of the country is not one of sitting and listening to carefully constructed arguments about this or that policy. Much of the country seems depressed, distrustful of policy wonks and political elites, and just wants a larger than life "hero" figure. With his "America First" MAGA doctrine, Trump provides just that. No hard to grasp nuanced argument, just chest-thumping, feel good rhetoric. Then we can get on with our daily lives.     

In hindsight the Dem's decision to impeach Trump may be seen as a stunning defeat and a terrible error of judgement, since it all but guarantees Trump's reelection. More worryingly, it has set an appalling precedent that significantly weakens Congress' ability to act as a check on the authority of the Executive branch. Absent legislation or an amendment to the Constitution, the Executive branch has been gifted vastly more autonomy. Whatever happens next, historians will rightly look back at 2019 as a watershed year in American democracy.