Global GPS was particularly interesting this week, with three well informed, intelligent and articulate panel discussants: Megan O'Sullivan, Richard Haas and Peter Beinart. The contrast to the ignorant, visceral ranting on Fox and Friends was as sobering as it was stark (a context in which Lindsey Graham sounded almost statesmanlike)!
Megan O'Sullivan noted that the thinking behind Qasem Suleinani's assassination may have been to trigger regime change. She also expressed some scepticism as to the justification of an "imminent threat" given that usually information would by now have been made available to allies and to Congress; that it has not raises legitimate questions.
Richard Haas noted that the decision, rather than aiding regime change, appears to have accomplished the opposite, turning popular animosity in both Iran and Iraq away from their governments and directing it towards the United States.
And as Peter Beinart noted, it is noteworthy (thought in my view not in the least surprising; it appears to be a "feature" of the political right) that a politician who so depends on nationalist sentiment is unable to see how the interference by a foreign power, particularly one that is seen by many in the region as overbearing and mettlesome, would play badly in another country. Beinart also suggested that some in the administration would like to start a war with Iran as a means of destroying militarily it's bomb-making capability; John Bolton's name springs immediately to mind even though he is no longer employed there.
After the show aired this morning two significant developments unfolded in short order. First, Iran announced that it was abandoning the JCPOA. While it's recent transgressions were aimed at applying pressure to the allies to re-engage with the deal, it has evidently decided that this is no longer a viable alternative. It seems likely that it will now move as fast as it can to acquiring a nuclear weapon. The outcome will be that the region will have two nuclear powers, making it only the second after India and Pakistan to have two nuclear-armed adversaries (North Korea and China are not technically adversaries). That will be a problem for Israel, whose strategic options in defending itself are now more complicated and limited. The second development was the vote taken in the Iraqi parliament to expels US troops from the country, further reducing US influence in the region. Whether that puts the Homeland and Americans at greater risk is unclear, but it necessitates a shift in US regional policy.
A risky decision has produced a significant shift in the world order in a matter of hours. I suggested two days ago that the decision was high risk setting a damaging precedent and disrupting norms that have taken years to establish, norms which have made the world generally a safer place safer. I thought then that it might take some time to see the ramifications of that decision but it appears we are seeing clear signs much earlier than I anticipated.
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