David Books, whose analysis on The PBS News Hour I watch religiously and deeply appreciate wrote an article in yesterday's NYT suggesting that Trump is bringing us all down to his level and that his detractors are making counter arguments in similarly over-hyped and simplistic terms. As evidence he cited Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren's concerned about the possibility of going to war with Iran. While I agree that Donald Trump (and his boosters on Fox) tend to frame things in stupifyingly simplistic terms, I disagree that one should not have been very concerned by recent events.
First, the killing of a high profile Iranian military leader and political figure came with enormous risk, in part because there was little precedent to guide our understanding of Iran’s response. Second, Trump's public statements, and the comments made by those who have worked with him suggest, as Books noted, an impulsive generally uninformed decision making process. Third, it is unclear that Trump is consistent in his choices, appearing to go with the whim of the moment, or the choice that seems to appeal most to his base; just because he has said in the past he doesn’t want war does not preclude him embracing it in the future. Finally, it has been suggested that extreme and unexpected choices are particularly appealing to him. All of which suggests that as terrible a choice as going to war with Iran would likely be for the US and the region, it was not unthinkable that he would chose this course. Indeed, the somber tone of the Fox and Friends and Fox News anchors yesterday seems to indicate that they considered this a distinct possibility. So I do think we had cause for concern.
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